Dr. Steven Cassou | Working Papers

 

Small-scale New Keynesian Model Features that can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns.

Abstract: This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a small-scale New Keynesian model with some important modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. We show that a general equilibrium model with habit formation, persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.
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Government Capital and Production: Industry Level Estimates.

Abstract: This paper estimates sectoral level production functions using U.S. data for nine industry groups. It is shown that the public capital elasticity differs across industries. This implies that not all industries are equally impacted by public capital spending and that using a single generic production function with constant returns to scale to represent all industries is not appropriate.
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Optimal monetary policy with real-time policy targets.

Abstract: Croushore (2011) and others have noted that monetary policy may be sensitive to inconsistencies between real-time data used by policy makers to make decisions and revised data which more accurately measure economic performance. This paper extends the asymmetric preference model suggested by Ruge-Murcia (2003) in order to focus on these inconsistencies which arise because of the long lag between the real-time data release and the revised data release. We focus on two isomorphic monetary policy models: One in which the central banker targets real-time inflation and output and the other in which the central banker targets real-time inflation and unemployment. Our model identifies several new potential sources of inflation bias due to data revisions in addition to the ones suggested in the literature. The paper also contributes to the real-time data processing literature by describing a method for computing an output revision series, which is the difference between (the logs of) the revised output series and the real-time output series. This computation is important because an output revision series is not available from standard data sources, yet such a series is useful for a variety of empirical exercises. Our empirical results obtained from US data suggest that the inflation bias induced by the predictability of data revisions is rather small whereas the one induced by asymmetric central bank preferences remains significant when considering real-time data.
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