Undergraduate Research Award

Audrey Chang has received an award for Undergraduate Research in the College of Arts & Sciences for Fall 2016. She will be working with Dr. Wei-Wen Hsu to develop a zero-inflated Poisson model for Kansas' tornadoes.

Abstract

The purpose of this project is to use a zero-inflated Poisson model coupled with working independence assumptions to analyze the longitudinal tornado data in the state of Kansas from 1950 to 2014. The zero-inflated models are used often to accommodate excess zero counts in data. In the Kansas tornado data, the number of counties with no tornado touch downs during a certain period of time was often observed, therefore creating many zero counts. Through the proposed model, we will identify factors (e.g., location of county, season, etc.) that can be used to predict the frequency of tornado touch downs in the future. We expect that the model can provide a new perspective about tornado monitoring and gain new understanding to Kansas’ tornado patterns.

Research Plan

The first two months will be set aside for reading and understanding of the data and related literature about the tornadoes and zero-inflated Poisson, respectively. The next three months we will conduct real data analysis using R and/or SAS as well as some data managements (i.e., data merging and data cleaning). The rest of the year will be used to write a scientific paper of the findings. We hope to publish our findings in a scientific paper afterwards.

For more information about undergraduate research opportunities in the College of Arts & Sciences, vist http://artsci.k-state.edu/research/undergraduate/