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Sources: Sam Bell, 785-532-6842, sbell3@k-state.edu;
and Amanda Murdie, 785-532-6842, amurdie@k-state.edu
News release prepared by: Greg Tammen, 785-532-2535, gtammen@k-state.edu

Friday, Feb. 4, 2011

MEDIA ADVISORY: EXPERTS CAN COMMENT ON POLITICAL UNREST INDICATORS, EFFECTS ON OTHER COUNTRIES, WHICH NATIONS ARE NEXT

MANHATTAN -- What is igniting political unrest in countries such as Egypt, Tunisia and the Sudan? What about the "boomerang" effect this has on other nations, and which countries will likely experience political unrest during the next five years?

A model developed by two assistant professors of political science at Kansas State University is proving successful in answering those questions.

Amanda Murdie and Sam Bell recently created a comprehensive computer model that predicts hotspots for political unrest around the world. So far the model has successfully predicted Egypt, Sudan, Tunisia, Peru, Ireland, Ecuador and Italy. Some of the other 37 countries on the list include Iran, Israel, China, Mexico and Belgium. The model accounts for human rights crackdowns, social media and cell phone use, and how a country projects itself throughout its territory. More about the model and these three forecast concepts can be found at http://www.k-state.edu/media/newsreleases/jan11/politicalviolence11911.html.

Murdie and Bell can be reached at 785-532-6842 or amurdie@k-state.edu and sbell3@k-state.edu.