(APPLAUSE)
WELL, GOOD AFTERNOON.
AND WELCOME TO THE 151ST LANDON LECTURE
ON PUBLIC AFFAIRS.
THE LANDON LECTURES WERE STARTED IN 1966
BY THE LATE GOVERNOR ALF LANDON
AND THE LATE K-STATE PRESIDENT JAMES MCCAIN.
THE GOAL OF THE LANDON LECTURES
IS TO BRING THE MOST PROMINENT
PUBLIC FIGURES TO
KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY
TO DISCUSS THE MOST IMPORTANT
AND PRESSING ISSUES OF THE DAY.
WE ARE VERY PLEASED TODAY TO
WELCOME THE DIRECTOR OF THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
GENERAL MICHAEL HAYDEN TO
THE LANDON PODIUM TO JOIN
150 PREDASESSORS IN
BRINGING THE THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS
OF IMPORTANT PUBLIC OFFICIALS.
BEFORE INTRODUCING MEMBERS
OF THE PLATFORM PARTY, I'D LIKE TO
INTRODUCE SEVERAL OTHER DISTINGUISHED LEADERS
WHO ARE HERE THIS AFTERNOON.
I'D LIKE TO INTRODUCE A DEAR FRIEND OF MINE
HE'S THE FORMER CHAIRMAN OF THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF.
HE IS KNOW A PROFESSOR OF MILITARY HISTORY
AT KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY
THE ONE, THE ONLY,
GENERAL RICHARD MYERS.
(APPLAUSE)
THEN I'D LIKE TO INTRODUCE ANOTHER DEAR
FRIEND WHO I'VE REALLY GOTTEN TO KNOW
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS.
HE IS DOING A BRILLIANT JOB OF COMMANDING THE FIRST INFANTRY DIVISION
AT FORT RILEY,
GENERAL ROBIN DURBAN.
GENERAL, NICE TO HAVE YOU HERE.
(APPLAUSE)
THEN, IT'S A PRIVILAGE FOR ME
TO INTRODUCE GENERAL CHRIS KING
DEAN OF ACADEMICS AT THE U.S ARMY COMMAND
AND GENERAL STAFF COLLEGE FORT LEAVENWORTH.
CHRIS? THERE HE IS RIGHT THERE.
(APPLAUSE)
SEE, YOU PROBABLY KNOW THIS, BUT WE HAVE
A GREAT RELATIONSHIP AND PARTNERSHIP WITH
FORT LEAVENWORTH, ESPECIALLY ACADEMICALLY.
YOU PROBABLY KNOW, SOME OF YOU, THAT WE HAVE
INSTITUTED A NEW MASTERS AND P.H.D DEGREE
IN STRATEGIC STUDIES.
SO, WE'RE WORKING WITH THE HISTORIANS
AND POLITICAL SCIENTISTS AT FORT LEAVENWORTH
AND HERE IS OUR POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT
AND HISTORY DEPARTMENT WE HAVE
THE FINEST STRATEGIC STUDIES PROGRAM IN THE WORLD.
SO, CHRIS, THANK YOU. IT'S A REAL PRIVILAGE
TO WORK WITH YOU AND YOUR STAFF.
THEN WE HAVE THE SENIOR SCIENTIFIC ADVISOR
FOR HOMELAND SECURITY
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE,
BERRY ERILIC (SP.)
BERRY? (APPLAUSE)
AND THEN WE ARE PLEASED THAT THE PRESIDENT
OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA LIFE SCIENCE INSTITUTE
COULD BE WITH US HERE TODAY.
DR. BILL DUNCAN.
BILL? THERE HE IS RIGHT THERE.
(APPLAUSE)
AND WE ARE ALSO PLEASED TO HAVE A
K-STATE GRADUATE, ANOTHER CLOSE FRIEND,
PRESIDENT AND CEO OF THE VERY IMPORTANT MIDWEST RESEARCH INSTITUTE, DR. JIM SPIGEROLI.
THERE HE IS RIGHT THERE.
(APPLAUSE)
AND THEN WE'RE VERY PLEASED TO HAVE THE PRESIDENT
OF THE RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AND
INTEGRATIONS ASOCIATIONS CORPORATION
BUD ST. GERMAIN./p>
BUD?
(APPLAUSE)
LET ME INTRODUCE THE MEMBERS OF
OUR PLATFORM PARTY.
ON MY LEFT, FRANKLIN SPIKES
EDUCATION ADMINISTRATION
PROFESSOR AND PRESIDENT OF THE FACULTY SENATE
DOING A GREAT JOB. DR. FRANKLIN SPIKES.
THEN WE'RE ALSO HAPPY TO HAVE OUR PRESIDENT
OF THE K-STATE STUDENT BODY
SHE'S A SENIOR IN EDUCATION - MATHEMATICS,
LYDIA PEAL, LYDIA. (APPLAUSE)
THEN, ON MY RIGHT, THE ESTEEMED EDITOR IN CHIEF
AND PUBLISHER OF THE MANHATTAN MERCURY,
ED SEATON, ED?
(APPLAUSE)
AND NEXT TO HIM, A PERSON WHO,
WE'VE WORKED TOGETHER FOR YEARS NOW
AND HE DOES AN EXCELLENT JOB OF HELPING
K-STATE ATTRACT TOP-NOTCH PEOPLE AND LEADERS
AND THROUGHOUT THE WORLD, DR. CHARLES REAGAN
ASSOCIATE TO THE PRESIDENT AND CHAIRMAN OF THE LANDON LECTURE SERIES. CHUCK? (APPLAUSE)
WELL, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, WE ARE OF COURSE
VERY HONORED AND PRIVILAGED TO HAVE GENERAL MICHAEL HAYDEN
DIRECTOR OF THE CIA HERE WITH US TODAY.
HE ENTERED ACTIVE DUTY IN 1969.
AFTER EARNING A BACHELORS DEGREE IN HISTORY
IN 1967 AND A MASTERS DEGREE IN AMERICAN HISTORY IN 1969.
FROM DECAIN UNIVERSITY. ACTUALLY, HE WALKED TO SCHOOL
EVERY DAY, HE WAS JUST BLOCK AWAY FROM DECAIN
AND DECAIN IS A VERY GOOD SCHOOL.
AND, OF COURSE HE'S MAJORING IN HISTORY.
YOU CAN'T BEAT THAT.
AND HE BECAME A DISTINGUISHED GRADUATE
OF THE UNIVERSITY'S R.O.T.C. PROGRAM.
WELL, GENERAL HAYDEN HAS SERVED AS
COMMANDER OF THE GENERAL AIR INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
AND AS DIRECTOR OF THE JOINT COMMAND
AND CONTROL WARFARE CENTER.
HE'S ALSO SERVED IN SENIOR STAFF POSITIONS
AT THE PENTAGON.
THE HEADQUARTERS OF THE
U.S.-EUROPEAN COMMAND.
THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, AND THE U.S.
EMBASSY IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA.
GENERAL HAYDEN HAS ALSO SERVED AS DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF
THE UNITED NATIONS COMMAND,
AND THE U.S. FORCES IN KOREA.
HE ALSO WAS DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY,
AND CHIEF CENTRAL SECURITY COORDINATOR FOR FORT GEORGE MEAD, MARYLAND.
PRIOR TO HIS CURRENT ASSIGNMENT,
HE WAS THE PRINCIPLE DEPUTY DIRECTOR
OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE.
THE FIRST PERSON TO SERVE IN THAT POSITION.
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, PLEASE JOIN WITH ME IN WELCOMING
THE DIRECTOR OF THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY, GENERAL MICHEAL HAYDEN.
(APPLAUSE)
GOOD AFTERNOON. THANK YOU, PRESIDENT WEFALD,
FOR THAT KIND INTRODUCTION,
AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE INVITATION TO BE HERE.
I'M HUMBLED BY THE OPPORTUNITY.
IT'S SOMETIMES SAID THAT MY FIELD - INTELLIGENCE -
IS DEFINED BY INFORMATION THAT IS INCOMPLETE,
CONTRADICTORY, OR BOTH.
HERE'S A SMALL EXAMPLE:
I AM THE FIRST DIRECTOR OF THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
AGENCY TO GIVE A LANDON LECTURE.
BUT I AM NOT THE ONLY ONE.
CONFUSED ALREADY?
YOU KNOW THE SPEAKERS WHO CAME HERE AS
BOB GATES, JIM SCHLESINGER, AND GEORGE H.W. BUSH.
THEY EACH RAN THE CIA - AND THEY
EACH WENT ON TO DO A FEW OTHER THINGS, TOO.
I MENTION MY PREDECESSORS NOT ONLY IN HOPES OF
BEING INVITED TO GIVE A SECOND LANDON LECTURE AS A FORMER DIRECTOR,
BUT TO UNDERSCORE THE POINT THAT INTELLIGENCE
OFFICERS COME FROM ALL WALKS OF LIFE.
THEY ARE PEOPLE YOU KNOW, PEOPLE YOU'RE
COMFORTABLE AND FAMILIAR WITH;
SOME MAY EVEN BE YOUR FRIENDS.
THE IMAGE HELD BY MANY AMERICANS -
THAT CIA AND INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY AT LARGE
IS FULL OF PEOPLE WHO SPEAK STRANGE LANGUAGES, WORK IN
EXOTIC PLACES, AND GATHER SECRET INFORMATION FROM MYSTERIOUS SOURCES -
THAT'S ACTUALLY TRUE. (LAUGHTER)
BUT IT IS ALSO A CARICATURE.
WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO DO TODAY IS GIVE YOU
A CLEARER SENSE OF WHAT CIA IS ALL ABOUT -
BOTH THE SCOPE OF ITS MISSION AND THE UNIQUE
PLACE IT OCCUPIES IN OUR NATIONS INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY.
FRANKLY, I'M GOING TO BRAG A BIT,
BECAUSE BEFORE I EVEN TOOK MY CURRENT ASSIGNMENT -
EVEN WHEN I WAS DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY,
AND THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE -
I THOUGHT OF CIA AS "AMERICA'S INTELLIGENCE AGENCY."
THE REASON IS SUMMED UP IN OUR MISSION.
THE MEN AND WOMEN I AM PRIVILEGED TO LEAD WAKE UP
EACH DAY WITH ONE OVERRIDING PURPOSE AND RESPONSIBILITY:
TO PROTECT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.
THE HEADLINES TELL YOU WHERE WE DEVOTE A GOOD DEAL
OF OUR TIME AND ATTENTION:
THE THREAT FROM AL-QA'IDA AND ITS AFFILIATES,
THE WAR IN IRAQ,
THE POTENTIAL FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN IRAN,
AND, MORE BROADLY, THE RISK OF WMD PROLIFERATION ACROSS THE GLOBE.
SYRIA'S CONTRUCTION OF A COVERT NUCLEAR REACTOR
WITH ASSISTANCE FROM NORTH KOREA IS ONLY
THE LATEST REMINDER OF THE CONSTANT
VIGILANCE REQUIRED IN A WORLD THAT STILL REMAINS TROUBLED.
CIA PLACES POWERFUL RESOURCES AGAINST THESE
AND A WHOLE HOST OF OTHER ISSUES.
THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON - THE CLOSE BATTLE - THE MOST URGENT ISSUES -
ARE WHAT SOMEWHAT LIKE A SWARM OF BEES,
AND NOT ONLY BECAUSE YOU CAN GET STUNG. JUST THINK OF SWARMS.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT, THERE ARE LOTS OF RANDOM-SEEMING BEHAVIORS
BUT IN AMUNGST THAT RANDOM SEEMING BEHAVIOR,
TO THE TRAINED EYE, THERE'S AN AWEFUL LOT OF PURPOSEFUL BEHAVIOR AS WELL.
AND OUR PURPOSE IN THAT SWARM IS TO IDENTIFY
THE PURPOSEFULL BEHAVIOR THAT MIGHT DO US HARM.
KEEPING OUR EYES ON THAT SWARM, UNDERSTANDING THINGS LIKE JAISH AL-MAHDI'S TACTICS IN BAGHDAD,
OR IRAN'S LATEST PLEDGE TO DETAIL ITS NUCLEAR ACTIVITY
IS A CRITICALLY IMPORTANT PART OF CIA'S JOB.
BUT IT IS ONLY ONE PART.
THE AGENCY HAS A GLOBAL MISSION.
IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERSTAND THE PRESENT BUT ALSO TO LOOK AHEAD,
NOT ONLY INTO THE NEAR FURTURE, WHAT MILITARY MEMBERS RECOGNIZE
AS THE CLOSE BATTLE, BUT FURTHER BEYOND.
WHAT G.I'S CALL "THE DEEP BATTLE" FOR THE DEEP BATTLE WE'VE GOT TO IDENTIFY AND COMPREHEND UNDERLYING GLOBAL
TRENDS IS JUST AS VITAL TO AMERICAN SECURITY
AND TO OUR CHARGE OF STRENGTHENING
AND SAFEGUARDING THE UNITED STATES.
PRESIDENT EISENHOWER - A GIFTED STRATEGIC THINKER
GUIDED BY THE VALUES AND SENSIBILITY HE LEARNED HERE IN THIS NEIGHBORHOOD -
NOTED THE BREATH OF CIA'S MISSION WHEN
HE WAS SPEAKING AT THE CORNERSTONE LAYING CEREMONY
FOR OUR HEADQUARTERS BUILDING ABOUT FIVE DECADES AGO.
BEFITTING A FORMER COMMANDER OF ALLIED FORCES,
THE FIRST THING HE TALKED ABOUT WAS THE
VALUE OF INTELLIGENCE IN COMBAT - FOR A WAR FIGHTER.
BUT THEN HE WENT ON: "IN PEACETIME," HE SAID,
"THE NECESSARY FACTS ARE OF A DIFFERENT NATURE.
THEY DEAL WITH CONDITIONS, RESOURCES, REQUIREMENTS,
AND ATTITUDES PREVAILING THE WORLD.
THEY AND THEIR CORRECT INTERPRETATION ARE ESSENTIAL
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF POLICY TO FURTHER OUR LONG-TERM
NATIONAL SECURITY AND BEST INTERESTS...NO TASK COULD BE MORE IMPORTANT."
EISENHOWER UNDERSTOOD THEN, AND WE UNDERSTAND NOW,
THAT MORE THAN ANY OTHER PART OF OUR GOVERNMENT,
CIA IS EXPECTED TO DETECT AND UNDERSTAND THE
UNDERLYING FORCES AT WORK IN THE WORLD -
THOSE UNDERLYING REALITIES THAT SHAPE THE
FUTURE. THEY SHAPE THE FUTURE FOR GOOD OR ILL,
AND THEY AFFECT OUR NATIONAL
SECURITY ISSUES FOR THE FUTURE.
TODAY, I KNOW WE ARE GOING TO LEAVE SOME TIME FOR QUESTIONS
AND ANSWERS. IF SOME OF THOSE HOT BUTTON ISSUES EXCITE YOU,
WMD, NUCLEAR REACTORS IN AN EASTERN SERIAN DESERT,
I'M HAPPY TO TAKE QUESTIONS.
TODAY, WHAT I WANT TO DO IS SPEND A LITTLE TIME
WITH YOU, NOT ON THE CLOSE FIGHT, BUT ON THE DEEP FIGHT.
AND TO LOOK AT THREE GLOBAL
TRENDS THAT POINT TO A 21ST CENTURY
THAT WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT
FROM THE CENTURY JUST ENDED.
TRENDS THAT ANALYSTS IN OUR DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE FOLLOW AND STUDY EVERY DAY.
THEIR EXPERTISE WAS INVALUABLE
IN PUTTING MY THOUGHTS TOGETHER FOR THE DAY.
THE 20TH CENTURY, LARGELY DEFINED BY THE
BIPOLAR STRUGGLE OF THE COLD WAR,
THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE STUDENTS, IT'S IN YOUR BOOKS,
ALL THE NEWSPAPERS WHEN I WAS YOUNG.
THE 20TH CENTURY WAS ULTIMATELY WAS ONE OF AMERICAN ECONOMIC,
POLITICAL, AND MILITARY DOMINATION.
IN THIS NEW CENTURY, THE WORLD WILL BE
A FAR MORE COMPLEX PLACE, AND THE CAPACITY OF OTHERS,
BOTH NATION-STATES AND NON-STATE ACTORS
TO INFLUENCE WORLD EVENTS, THEIR CAPACITY WILL GROW.
LET ME BE CLEAR. I DON'T SUBSCRIBE TO THE
IDEA THAT GEOPOLITICS IS A ZERO-SUM GAME.
AND I AM NOT SUGGESTING A DECLINE
IN AMERICAN INFLUENCE.
TO THE CONTRARY, THE UNITED STATES WILL
REMAIN AN INTERNATIONAL LEADER.
A FORCE FOR PEACE, FREEDOM, AND PROSPERITY THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD, AND ENGINE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INNOVATION,
AND A MILITARY POWERHOUSE.
MY POINT IS, OUR NATION WILL BA ALL THOSE THINGS
WITHIN A CHANGED GLOBAL CONTEXT.
A CONTEXT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO UNDERSTAND
AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT IF WE ARE TO LIVE IN THIS NEW CENTURY PEACFULLY,
FREELY, AND PROSPEROUSLY
WITH THAT IN MIND, LET ME TURN TO THOSE
THREE TRENDS AND TREND NUMBER ONE.
IN THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE, ONE OF THE MOST
IMPORTANT THINGS TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS WORLD DEMOGRAPHICS.
I MAY BE POINTING AT THE OBVIOUS HERE, BUT LET ME
ME PPOINT TO SOME OF THE THINGS OUR ANALYSTS BROUGHT TO MY ATTENTION.
TODAY, THERE ARE ABOUT 6.7 BILLION PEOPLE
SHARING OUR PLANET.
BY MID-CENTURY, THE BEST ESTIMATES POINT TO
A WORLD POPULATION OF MORE THAN 9 BILLION.
THAT'S A 40-45% GROWTH. MOST OF THAT GROWTH WILL OCCUR IN COUNTRIES
LEAST ABLE TO SUSTAIN IT,
A SITUATION THAT WILL LIKELY FUEL INSTABILITY
AND EXTREMISM, BOTH IN THOSE AREAS AND BEYOND.
MANY POOR, ALREADY FRAGILE STATES WHERE
GOVERNANCE IS DIFFICULT TODAY WILL GROW RAPIDLY.
IN AFGHANISTAN, LIBERIA, NIGER,
AND THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO,
THE POPULATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRIPLE BY MID-CENTURY.
THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN ETHIOPIA, MIGERIA,
AND YEMEN WILL MORE THAN DOUBLE.
FURTHERMORE, ALL OF THOSE COUNTRIES WILL
HAVE LARGE CONCENTRATIONS OF YOUNG PEOPLE.
IF THEIR BASIC FREEDOMS
AND BASIC NEEDS -
FOOD, HOUSING, EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT
ARE NOT MET, THEY COULD EASILY BE
ATTRACTED TO VIOLENCE, CIVIL UNREST, OR EXTREMISM.
THROUGH GLOBAL MIGRATION, THE IMPACT OF
RAPID POPULATION GROWTH IN AFRICA,
SOUTHEAST ASIA, AND ELSEWHERE WILL
BE FELT IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD AS WELL.
MILLIONS OF YOUNG PEOPLE FROM FAST-GROWING,
POORLY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES WILL EMIGRATE,
LEGALLY AND ILLEGALLY, IN SEARCH OF
ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY, SECURITY, OR POLITICAL FREEDOM.
RECEIVING COUNTRIES - AMERICA HAS AN EXCELLENT RECORD IN THIS REGARD,
OF COURSE, HAVE MUCH TO GAIN FROM AN INFLUX OF YOUNG WORKERS,
PARTICULARLY BECAUSE POPULATIONS ARE
AGING RAPIDLY.
BUT SOCIAL INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS WILL
POSE A SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE TO MANY HOST NATIONS,
AGAIN, BOOSTING THE POTENTIAL FOR UNREST AND EXTREMISM.
CONSIDER EUROPE. THE FASTES GROWING MINORITY
THERE IS COMPRISED OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE EMIGRATED FROM
PREDOMINANTLY MUSLIM COUNTRIES
AND THEIR DESCENDANTS.
ESTIMATES VARY, BUT MOST SAY THERE ARE ABOUT
FIVE MILLION PEOPLE OF MUSLIM HERITAGE IN FRANCE,
THREE MILLION IN GERMANY,
AND ALMOST TWO MILLION IN THE UNITED KINGDOM.
TODAY, THE TOTAL FOR THE EU IS ROUGHLY 16 MILLION,
OR ABOUT THREE PERCENT OF THE POPULATION.
BUT WITH A BIRTH RATE AT LEAST TWICE
THE AVERAGE OF ETHNIC EUROPEANS,
THE MUSLIM POPULATION WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AS THE
NON-MUSLIM POPULATION SHRINKS IN THE NEXT FEW DECADES.
EVEN BEFORE 9/11, EUROPEAN GOVERNMENTS RECOGNIZED THAT
THIS GROWING IMMIGRANT COMMUNITY POSED
CHALLENGES TO THEIR SOCIETIES.
SINCE THEN, THEY HAVE PUT IN PLACE
A VARIETY OF MEASURES THAT AIM TO IMPROVE
ASSIMILATION OF IMMIGRANTS AND COUNTER EXTREMISM,
BUT SUCCESS HAS BEEN MIXED AT BEST. ANOTHER EXAMPLE
OF DEMOGRAPHICS: RUSSIA FACES A DIFFERENT KIND OF DEMOGRAPHIC STRESS.
IN THE NEXT FOUR DECADES, WE EXPECT
THE POPULATION OF RUSSIA TO SHRINK BY 32 MILLION PEOPLE,
THAT MEANS RUSSIA WILL LOSE
ABOUT A QUARTER OF ITS POPULATION.
RUSSIA INCREASINGLY WILL HAVE TO LOOK ELSEWHERE FOR WORKERS.
SOME IMMIGRANTS WILL BE RUSSIONS FROM THE FORMER SOVIET STATES.
OTHERS WILL BE CHINESE AND NON-RUSSIANS
FROM THE CAUCASUS, CENTRAL ASIA AND ELSEWHERE,
POTENTIALLY AGGRAVATING RUSSIA'S ALREADY
UNEASY RACIAL AND RELIGIOUS TENSIONS.
THOSE ARE JUST TWO EXAMPLES OF THE
LIKELY IMPACT OF CHANGING WORLD DEMOGRAPHICS.
THEY DEMONSTRATE, THROUGH, THE IMPORTANCE OF
UNDERLYING POPULATION TRENDS AND THE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE THEM:
THINGS THAT YOU PROBABLY DON'T THINK SHOULD INTREREST US. THINGS LIKE
FERTILITY RATES, LIFE EXPECTANCY, THE PREVALENCE OF HIV, AND EASE OF MIGRATION.
CLEARLY, THERE WILL BE MANY IMPLICATION FOR
OUR NATIONAL SECURITY TO COME OUT OF THIS.
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SECURITY
THREATS FACING AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DECADES.
THE SECOND 21ST CENTURY TREND I WANT TO
ADDRESS IS THE RISE OF ASIA.
IN A RECENT OPED, HENRY KISSINGER CALLED THIS
"A SHIFT IN THE CENTER OF GRAVITY
OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS FROM THE ATLANTIC
TO THE PACIFIC AND INDIAN OCEANS."
WE HAVE A STRATEGIC INTENT IN CIA, IT'S MOSTLY ABOUT HOW WE DO BUSINESS
IT TALKS ABOUT HOW WE WANT TO GROW AS AN INSTITUTION.
WE SEE THE RISE OF CHINA AND INDIA AND THE EMERGENCE OF NEW
ECONOMIC CENTERS AS TRANS FORMATIVE FORCES ON THE GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE.
THAT WE AS AN AGENCY HAVE TO ACCOMIDATE IN OUR STRATEGIC PLANNING.
OVER THE NEXT DECADES, CONTINUED ECONOMIC GROWTH, TRADE, AND INVESTMENT WILL BRING
THE COUNTRIES OF ASIA CLOSER TOGETHER
AND GIVE THEM CONFIDENCE IN INTERNATION AFFAIRS.
COMPETITION FOR INFLUENCE WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CHINA,
INDIA, JAPAN, AND EMERGING POWERS.
BUT CHINA, A COMMUNIST-LED,
NUCLEAR STATE THAT ASPIRES TO -
AND WILL LIKELY ACHIEVE -
GREAT POWER STATUS DURING THIS CENTURY,
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF AMERICAN ATTENTION.
AS SUCH, IT DESERVES SPECIAL MENTION TODAY.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH ISSUES OF REAL
CONSEQUENCE FOR OUR NATIONAL SECURITY,
THERE ARE DIFFERING VIEWS ABOUT WHERE
CHINA IS HEADED AND WHAT ITS MOTIVATIONS ARE.
LET ME GIVE YOU MIKE HAYDEN'S VIEW:
CHINA IS A COMPETITOR.
CERTAINLY IN THE ECONOMIC REALM, AND,
INCREASINGLY, ON THE GEOPOLITICAL STAGE.
BUT CHINA IS NOT AN INEVITABLE ENEMY.
THERE ARE GOOD POLICY CHOICES AVAILABLE TO BOTH
WSHINGTON AND BEIJING THAT CAN KEEP US
ON THE LARGELY PEACEFUL, CONSTRUCTIVE PATH
WE'VE BEEN ON FOR ALMOST 40 YEARS NOW.
I SAY WITH FULL APPRECIATION FOR THE REMARKABLE SPEED
AND SCOPE OF CHINA'S RECENT MILITARY BUILDUP.
THE CHINESE HAVE FULLY ABSORBED THE LESSONS
OF BOTH WARS IN THE PERSIAN GULF, THEY'VE DEVELOPED AND INTEGRATED
ADVANCED WEAPONRY INTO MODERN MILITARY FORCE.
WHILE IT'S TRUE THAT THESE NEW CAPABILITIES
COULD POSE A RISK TO U.S. FORCES AND INTERESTS
IN THE REGION, THE MILITARY MODERNIZATION
IS AS MUCH ABOUT PROJECTING STRENGTH AS ANYTHING ELSE.
AFTER TWO CENTURIES OF PERCEIVED WESTERN HEGEMONY,
CHINA IS DETERMINED TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE.
IT SEES AN ADVANCED MILITARY FORCE AS AN ESSENTIAL
ELEMENT OF GREAT POWER STATUS.
AND IT IS THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY'S VIEW THAT
ANY CHINESE REGIME, EVEN A DEMOCRATIC ONE,
WOULD HAVE A SIMILAR NATIONALIST GOALS.
DON'T MISUNDERSTAND.
THE MILITARY BUILDUP IS TROUBLING,
BECAUSE IT REINFORCES LONG HELD CONCERNS
ABOUT CHINESE INTENTIONS TOWARD TAIWAN.
BUT EVEN WITHOUT THAT ISSUE,
WE ASSESS THAT A BUILDUP WOULD CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT NOT LOOK THE WAY THE CURRENT ONE LOOKS.
AS IMPORTANT AS MILITARY STRENGTH IS THE CHINA TODAY,
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND POLITICAL STABILITY
ARE JUST AS CENTRAL TO ITS LEADERS' THINKING.
AS AMBASSADOR THE CHINESE AMBASSADOR HIMSELF MADE CLEAR
WHEN HE WAS HERE JUST 11 WEEKS AGO.
FROM THE AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE, CHINA'S GROWING ENGAGEMENT WITH
THE REST OF THE WORLD IS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY TWO THINGS:
A NEED FOR ACCESS TO MARKETS,
RESOURCES, TECHNOLOGY, AND ESPERTISE,
AND A DESIRE TO ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE IN THE REGION
AND WITH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN OTHER
PARTS OF THE WORLD.
I SHOULD NOTE THAT EVEN AS IT ASPIRES
TO A LARGER GLOBAL ROLE,
CHINA FACES SIGNIFICANT DOMESTIC
CHALLENGES AND STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES:
THINGS LIKE UNEVEN INCOME DISTRIBUTION,
GROWING DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL AND OTHER IMPORTED RESOURCES,
ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, AND AGING POPULATION,
AND MASSIVE MIGRATION FROM RURAL AREAS TO CITIES.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL INFLUENCE
CHINA'S TRAJECTORY, AND WE CAN'T IGNORE THEM.
BUT TO ME, THE KEY QUESTION FOR THE FUTURE
IS WHETHER CHINA IS READY TO ACCEPT THE RESPONIBILITY
THAT COMES ALONG WITH "GREAT POWER STATUS."
TODAY, CHINA'S BEHAVIOR IN THE INTERNATIONAL REALM IS
FOCUSED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ON NARROWLY DEFINED CHINSES OBJECTIVES.
WE SAW THAT IN CHINA'S DEALINGS WITH SUDAN,
WHERE PROTECTION OF THEIR OIL INTERESTS HAS BEEN PARAMOUNT.
LET ME GIVE YOU ANOTHER EXAMPLE.
TWO YEARS AGO, BEIJING PLEDGED TO PACIFIC ISLAND NATIONS
MORE THAN $370 MILLION AT A FORUM SPECIFICALLY
DESIGNED TO UNDERMINE TAIWAN'S TIES TO THE REGION.
MUCH OF CHINA'S AID TO THE DEVELOPING WORLD
COMES WITH FEW, IF ANY, CONDITIONS ATTACHED,
WHICH UNDERMINES THE WEST'S OWN EFFORTS
TO PROMOTE GOOD GOVERNANCE.
WHETHER CHINA BEGINS TO ENGAGE THE WORLD IN
WAYS THAT ARE LESS NARROWLY FOCUSED WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE THE U.S.-CHINA RELATIONSHIP IN THE NEXT CENTURY.
IF BEIJING BEGINS TO ACCEPT GREATER RESPONIBILITY
FOR THE HEALTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM -
AS ALL GLOBAL POWERS SHOULD -
WE WILL REMAIN ON A CONSTRUCTIVE,
EVEN IF COMETITIVE, PATH.
IF NOT, THE RISE OF CHINA BEGINS TO LOOK MORE ADVERSARIAL.
NUMBER THREE: LET ME TURN NOW TO ANOTHER KEY STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP,
THE ONE BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES.
CHANGES THERE DEFINE A THIRD KEY TREND
THAT WILL SHAPE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY.
ROBERT KAGAN AND OTHERS REFER TO "A DIVERGENCE OF INTERESTS,"
EVEN A PHRASE, "TRANSATLANTIC DIVIDE."
AND DISAGREEMENTS OVER THE WAR IN IRAQ
AND THE GLOBAL FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM
HAVE RAISE QUESTIONS IN RECENT YEARS
ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THIS U.S.-EUROPEAN ALLIANCE.
THOSE DISAGREEMENTS THAT WE'VE SEEN PLAYED OUT FAIRLY PUBLICALLY, ARE ONLY SYMPTOMS OF AN
UNDERLYING SHIFT - BEAR WITH ME - BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE END OF THE COLD WAR.
NICK BURNS, FORMER UNDERSECRETARY WAS OUT HERE
NICK HAS TALKED ABOUT THIS AS WELL.
IT COMES DOWN TO THIS: THE U.S.-EUROPE RELATIONSHIP
NO LONGER NEEDS TO FOCUS PRIMARILY ON EUROPE.
TODAY, THE CONTINENT IS NEARLY WHOLE, FREE, AND AT PEACE.
AS A RESULT, OUR COLLECTIVE ATTENTION CAN SHIFT ELSEWHERE.
WE CAN, FOR THE FIRST TIME, DEVOTE MOST OF OUR
ENERGY TO MEETING GLOBAL THREATS THAT AFFECT US ALL.
BUT THAT'S THE CHALLENGE.
THE TRUTH IS, NEARLY TWO DECADES AFTER THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL,
AMERICA AND EUROPE STILL ARE GRAPPLING WITH
HOW BEST TO MANAGE THE SECURITY RISKS OF THE POST COLD WAR WORLD.
ABSENT A COMMON UNIFYING THREAT THAT
OVERRIDES ALL OTHERS,
DIFFERENCES ARE CROPPING UP
OVER A HOST OF ISSUES.
INTELLIGENCE IS NO EXCEPTION.
AT CIA, WE WORK MORE CLOSELY WITH
OUR COUNTERPARTS ON THE CONTINENT
ON A WIDER RANGE OF ISSUES THAN EVER BEFORE.
WE WOULD HAVE IT NO OTHER WAY.
OUR COOPERATION WITH EUROPEAN ALLIES
HAS THWARTED TERRORIST PLOTS AND SAVED LIVES, EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN.
BUT ITS ALSO TRUE THAT MORE COLLABORATION ON MORE ISSES
BRINGS WITH IT GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR DISAGREEMENT.
THE ISSUES WE ARE FACING ARE NOT EASY,
SOME OF THEM - OUTWARDLY FOCUSED AS THEY ARE -
HAVE SIMPLY NOT BEEN PART OF
THE TRADITIONAL U.S.-EUROPEAN AGENDA.
MANY OF THE DISAGREEMENTS WE HAVE
ARE CENTERED ON PERCEPTION OF THE THREAT
AND THE TACTICS WE WOULD WANT TO USE TO
THWART THIS PERCEIVED DANGER.
SO, FOR EXAMPLE, WHILE WE SHARE THE VIEW THAT
TERRORISM IS A DANGER,
THERE ARE SERIOUS DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN US AND EUROPE ON HOW BEST TO CONFRONT IT.
SOME OF THIS STEMS FROM
THE FACT THAT OUR INTELLIGENCE,
LEGAL, AND LAW ENFORCEMENT SYSTEMS ARE NOT THE SAME,
I KNOW WE SHARE THE SAME LIBERAL, DEMOCRATIC TRADITIONS.
BUT WE'VE EVOLVED IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS
IN EACH OF THESE STAKES.
SO, WE HAVE DIFFERENT INTELLIGENCE, LEGAL
AND LAW ENFORCEMENT STRUCTURES.
AND THAT SHOWS ITS FACE IN THE
COOPERATION OF MY AGENCY AND EUROPEAN PARTNERS.
BUT, IN MY VIEW,
THAT'S NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR.
RATHER, IT'S THIS, IT'S A FUNDAMENTAL VIEW OF THE WORLD TODAY
I'M GOING TO GIVE YOU THE AMERICAN VERSION: THE UNITED STATES BELIEVES IT IS A NATION AT WAR.
A WAR THAT IS GLOBAL IN SCOPE,
AND REQUIRES, AS A PRECONDITION FOR WINNING,
THAT WE TAKE THE FIGHT TO THE ENEMY,
WHEREVER HE MAY BE.
THOSE SENTENCES ARE NOT
WIDELY SHARED BY OUR ALLIES.
IN MUCH OF EUROPE, TERRORISM IS SEEN DIFFERENTLY:
PRIMARILY AS AN INTERNAL, LAW ENFORCEMENT PROBLEM,
AND SOLUTIONS ARE FOCUSED MORE NARROWLY
ON SECURING ONE HOMELAND OR ANOTHER.
WHEN THERE IS A DIRECT THREAT TO THEIR PEOPLE
OR INTERESTS, EUROPEAN GOVERNMENTS WORK WITH
EACH OTHER AND THEY WORK
WITH US TO DISRUPT THAT THREAT.
BUT THEY TEND NOT TO VIEW AS WE DO:
AS AN OVERWHELMING INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGE.
OR IF THEY DO, WE OFTEN DIFFER ON WHAT
WOULD BE EFFECTIVE AND APPROPRIATE TO COUNTER IT.
DIFFERING VIEWS OVER THE NATURE OF THREATS
AND THE RIGHT TACTIC TO ADDRESS THEM
ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT U.S.-EUROPE REALATIONS
FOR MUCH OF THIS CENTURY,
AND THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT
ON MANY LEVELS -
FROM INTELLIGENCE AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
TO MILITARY COOPERATION AND FOREIGN POLICY.
I AM CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK TOGETHER ON MANY TOUGH GLOBAL CHALLENGES,
AS WE ARE TODAY FOR EXAMPLE
IN AFGHANISTAN
OR AS WE'RE DOING TODAY IN WORKING TOGETHER TO
DETER IRAN FROM DEVELOPING NUCLEAR WEAPONS
BUT IT IS NOT YET CLEAR WHEN OR IF
THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE WILL COME
TO SHARE THE SAME VIEWS OF 21ST CENTURY THREATS,
AS WE DID FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY,
MANAGING THE DISAGREEMENTS AND TENSIONS
THAT ARISE IN THE ABSENCE OF A UNIFIED VISION
WILL COMPLICATE WHAT HAS TRADITIONALLY BEEN
AMERICA'S EASIEST RELATIONSHIP.
AS IS TRUE OF THE OTHER TWO TRENDS I'VE SPOKEN ABOUT,
THIS CHANGE IN THE U.S.-EUROPE RELATIONSHIP
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE COMPLEXITY
OF WORLD AFFAIRS IN THE 21ST CENTURY.
THESE TREND LINES, AND OTHERS
I HAVE NOT MENTIONED, INDICATE THAT A GREATER
NUMBER OF ACTORS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE
ON THE WORLD STAGE IN THIS CENTURY.
AND THAT PRESENTS ONE OVERRIDING CHALLENGE TO THOSE
OF US RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR NATION'S SECURITY:
WE - THIS "WE", UP HERE - MUST DO A BETTER JOB OF UNDERSTANDING CULTURES,
HISTORIES, RELIGIONS, AND TRADITIONS THAT ARE NOT OUR OWN.
TO MEET THIS CHALLENGE, CIA AND ALL OTHER
INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES ARE WORKING VERY HARD
TO RECUIT AND RETAIN OFFICERS WITH A RICH DIVERSITY
OF EDUCATION, LANGUAGE SKILL, ETHNICITY, RELIGION,
OVERSEAS EXPERIENCE, AND SO ON.
I SHOULD NOTE THAT ACADEMIA, BUSINESS, AND OTHER PARTS
OF OUR SOCIETY ALSO HAVE AN IMPORTANT
ROLE TO PLAY IN ENHANCING OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE WORLD.
AFTER 39 YEARS OF PUBLIC SERVICE, IT IS
CLEARER TO ME THAN EVER THAT OUR NATIONAL SECURITY
INSTITUTIONS ARE ONLY AS STRONG
AND CAPABLE AS THE SOCIETY THEY REPRESENT.
MY AGENCY, AND THE ENTIRE INTELLIGENCE
COMMUNITY, DEPENDS ON AMERICA FOR THE TALENT,
INNOVATION, VALUES, AND DEDICATION
THAT WE HAVE TO HAVE TO MEET OUR CHALLENGES.
TO DEFEAT THE SCOURGE OF AL-QA'IDA'S VIOLENT
IDEOLOGY, FOR EXAMPLE, WE NEED A LOT MORE
AMERICANS FLUENT NOT JUST IN ARABIC, BUT IN PASHTO,
URDU, FARSI, AND A HOST OF OTHER HARD LANGUAGES THAT WEREN'T IN THE CURRICULUM.
WE NEED MORE EXPERTS IN ISLAMIC
STUDIES AND IN MIDDLE EASTERN POLITICS
CULTURE, AND SOCIETY.
ADD SOUTH ASIA, TOO.
THAT'S A TALL ORDER,
AND IT'S GOING TO TAKE TIME.
THE TRUTH IS WE HAVE NOT YET ACHIEVED
A MOBILIZATION OF RESOURCES,
INCLUDING ACADEMIC RESOURCES,
THAT MATCHES WHAT WE ACCOMPLISHED
IN THE POST-WORLD WAR II PERIOD.
IF AMERICA IS TO SUCCESSFULLY CONFRONT
THE THREATS AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
OPPORTUNITIES THAT THIS CENTURY WILL PRESENT,
WE MUST UNDERTAKE THAT KIND OF MOBILIZATION.
JUST THINK FOR A MINUTE
THE START OF THE COLD WAR IS GENERALLY DATED TO PAUL NITZE
AND A DOCUMENT CALLED NSC 68.
IN WHICH HE ESSENTIALLY LAID OUT
THAT WE ARE IN A STRATEGIC COMPETITION WITH THE SOVIET UNION.
TAKE THAT DATE IN THE LATE 40S, NOW COMPARE IT TO
SEPTEMBER 11TH, 2001, RUN YOUR TIMELINE FORWARD ON PARALLEL TRACKS.
GIVE YOU SEVEN YEARS FROM 9/11
AND GIVE YOU SEVEN YEARS FROM PAUL NITZE AND NSC 68.
NOW CUT UP THE NUMBER OF RUSSIAN LANGUAGE STUDIES
AND SOVIET CULTURE STUDIES IN AMERICAN ACADEMIA
COMPARE THAT TO WHERE WE ARE TODAY
AND I'D SAY WE'RE A LITTLE LATE OFF THE STARTING BLOCKS.
IN TERMS OF MOBILIZING OUR SOCIETY.
WE HAVE TO BROADEN OUR UNDERSTANDING, AND LET ME TELL YOU WHY.
JUST BEYOND, YOU'VE GOT TO KNOW THE LANGUAGE
IF YOU'RE GOING TO READ THE MESSAGE YOU JUST INTERCEPTED.
IT'S ACTUALLY MORE IMPORTANT THAN THAT.
WE HAVE TO GUARD AGAINST VIEWING THE WORLD
EXCLUSIVELY THROUGH AN AMERICAN PRISM.
WE MUST NOT RELY EXCLUSIVELY ON AN AMERICAN
OR EVEN MORE BROADLY, WESTERN LENS
IN ASSESSING FOREIGN CHALLENGES AND
HELPING POLICYMAKERS DECIDE HOW TO RESPOND.
LARGE PARTS OF THE WORLD,
INCLUDING THOSE THAT I'VE METIONED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON,
DO NOT SHARE ALL OF OUR IDEAS.
WHILE WE CHERISH AND LIVE OUR OWN VALUES,
WE MUST KNOW AND APPRECIATE THOSE OF OTHERS.
THEIR PERCEPTIONS AND BEHAVIORS ARE DRIVEN BY
MOTIVATIONS AND EXPERIENCES THAT
ARE VERY DIFFERENT FROM OUR OWN.
TAKE THE ISSUE OF NATIONALISM, FOR INSTANCE.
AMERICA HAS SUCCESSFULLY ASSIMILATED NEW ARRIVALS
FOR HUNDREDS OF YEARS.
OUR STATUS AS THE WORLD'S MELTING POT
IS A SOURCE OF NATIONAL PRIDE AND STRENGTH.
UNLESS WE ARE CAREFUL,
THOUGH, THAT PRIDE AND EXPERIENCE
MIGHT CREATE A BLIND SPOT FOR US.
WE MIGHT MISUNDERSTAND OR DISCOUNT
THE POTENCY OF ETHIC NATIONALISM
IN OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD - A MISTAKE THAT COULD HAVE< br/> SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. SECURITY AND POLICY.
THIS WAS DRIVEN HOME FOR ME SEVERAL YEARS AGO, I WAS IN PRISHTINA
AND THE NATO HEADQUARTERS THERE IS A PLACE CALLED FILM CITY
BECAUSE IT WAS A FILM STUDIO PRIOR TO THE WAR.
I'M THERE IN FILM CITY AND I'M GOING TO TAKE A BRIEFING FROM THE INTELLIGENCE TEAM THAT'S THERE.
I SIT DOWN ON THE COUCH AND THEY START TO GIVE ME THE BRIEFING,
YOU BEGIN WITH A GENERAL ORIENTATION.
IS A SOURCE OF NATIONAL PRIDE AND STRENGTH.
UNLESS WE ARE CAREFUL,
SO WIDE, SO HIGH, SO TALL, SO FAST.
HOW BIG THE COUNTRY, WHAT'S THE POPULATION OF THE COUNTRY,
WHAT'S THE ETHNIC BREAKDOWN OF THE POPULATION OF THE COUNTRY,
AND SO ON - GENERAL ORIENTATION BRIEFING.
SO, I'M THERE ON AUTOPILOT BECAUSE HE'S DRONING ON WITH NUMBERS < br/> WHICH I'M FAIRLY FAMILIAR WITH BECAUSE I USED TO LIVE IN THE BALKANS.
AND ABOUT THREE MINUTES INTO THE PRESENTATION,
HE SAYS, "NOW, LET ME GIVE YOU A SENSE OF HOW FAR AWAY YOU ARE FROM WASHINGTON."
WHEN IT'S NOON IN WASHINGTON, IT'S STILL
1389 IN COSOVO. (LAUGHTER)
1389 IS THE BATTLE OF COSOVO POLLE,
THE BATTLE OF BLACKBIRDS.
ZHAR LAZARUS ACCEPTING DEFEAT FOR HIS EARTHLY KINGDOM,
AT THE HAND OF SUDOMON THE MAGNIFICENT SO HE COULD WIN A GREATER REWARD IN HEAVEN.
WELL, UNLESS YOU UNDERSTAND THAT, OR AT LEAST PART OF THAT,
YOU DON'T REALLY GET DOWN TO THE NATURE AND YOU'RE SITTING THERE WHINING "WHY CAN'T THESE PEOPLE JUST GET ALONG?"
WRONG LENS.
AMERICAN WILL CONTINUE TO APPLY
ITS OWN VALUES AND IDEALS IN THE POLICIES
THAT GUIDE ITS GLOBAL ENGAGEMENT,
BUT NEW FORCES AT PLAY IN THE WORLD
CANNOT BE OVERLOOKED OR IGNORED IF WE WANT
TO POSITIVELY INFLUENCE THE FUTURE'S COURSE.
FAILURE TO SEE AND UNDERSTAND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACT OF UNDERLYING TRENDS LIKE THE THREE I JUST SPOKE OF
WOULD BE MORE THAN WHAT MY ANALYSTS
CALL A MIRROR-IMAGING PROBLEM.
IT WOULD BE A FAILURE OF IMAGINATION
ONE OF THE SUREST PATHS TO AN INTELLIGENCE BREAKDOWN.
AS YOU KNOW, IMPORTANT GLOBAL TRENDS ARE
STUDIED AND DISCUSSED IN FORUMS OF ALL TYPES.
FROM CONFERENCE ROOMS IN WASHINGTON,
TO SHAREHOLDER MEETINGS IN NEW YORK,
TO CLASSROOMS RIGHT HERE IN MANHATTAN, KANSAS.
INDEED, CIA DRAWS FROM A RICH CROSS-SECTION
OF EXPERTISE IN STUDYING THESE TRENDS
AND ALL OTHER ISSUES OF NATIONAL SECURITY SIGNIFICANCE.
BUT THE AGENCY, BY ITS NATURE AND ITS CHARACTER,
APPROACHES THESE ISSUES AS NO ONE ELSE DOES.
THE ROLE WE PLAY IN DEFENDING OUR
REPUBLIC IS A UNIQUE AS IT IS CRITICAL.
THE MOST OBVIOUS DISTINCTION IS THAT WE COMMIT ESPIONAGE.
THE OFFICERS OF OUR NATIONAL CLANDESTINE SERVICE
RECUIT SPIES AND STEAL SECRETS TO GAIN INFORMATION
THAT NO ONE ELSE CAN.
WHILE ESPIONAGE MAY NOT BE CRUCIAL
TO IDENTIFYING KEY TRENDS THEMSELVES,
IT IS ABSOLUTELY VITAL TO UNDERSTAND
HOW OTHER STATES OR GROUPS WILL REACT TO THEM.
SECONDLY, CIA SYNTHESIZES INFORMATION OF ALL TYPES,
COMBINING DIFFERENT STREAMS OF INTELLIGENCE-
FROM BOTH HUMAN AND TECHNICAL SOURCES -
WITH OPEN-SOURCE INFORMATION.
WE HAVE THE LARGEST ALL-SOURCE ANALYTIC CADRE
AND THE DEEPEST AND BROADEST EXPERTISE
IN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY.
MOREOVER, WE ARE THE ONLY MEMBER OF THE COMMUNITY
THAT DOES NOT HAVE A POLICY
INTEREST IN THE ISSUES WE ANALYZE.
LET ME EXPLAIN THAT.
WE'RE THE ONLY GROUP OF ANALYSTS IN THE AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
THAT DO NOT BELONG TO ONE OR ANOTHER
CABINET DEPARTMENT.
WE ARE AUTONOMOUS IN THAT SENSE.
CIA ALSO HAS AN ABILITY TO MOVE BEYOND ONE OR TWO
INTELLIGENCE DISCIPLINES.
BY BOTH HISTORY AND LAW, THE AGENCY PLAYS A VITAL
LEADERSHIP ROLE IN BRINGING TO BEAR
THE FULL CAPABILITIES OF AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE.
OUR TEAM EFFORT ON THAT NO LONGER COVERT NUCLEAR REACTOR
IN SYRIA IS A GOOD CASE IN POINT.
BY COMBINING RIGOROUS ANALYTIC TRADECRAFT,
SKILLFUL HUMAN AND TECHNICAL COLLECTION,
AND CLOSE COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES, BOTH AMERICAN AND FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES,
WE WERE ABLE TO DETERMINE NOT ONLY WHAT
THIS BUILDING IN THE REMOTE DESERT WAS,
BUT ALSO WHO WAS INVOLVED IN
ITS PLANNING AND CONSTRUCTION.
CIA IS THE NATURAL CHOICE TO PLAY THAT
KIND OF LEADERSHIP ROLE IN OUR COMMUNITY.
IF YOU LOOK, AND THOSE OF YOU WHO
HAVE STUDIED THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY, YOU'VE GOT A LOT OF BOXES ON THE CHART.
YOU'VE GOT IMAGERY AGENCIES, AND
COUNTER TERRORISM CENTERS, AND OPEN SOURCE CENTERS, AND SO ON.
IF YOU STUDY IT LONG ENOUGH,
YOU'LL SEE EACH ONE OF THOSE BOXES.
IN FACT, ALL OF THEM BUT ONE HAVE BLOODLINES
BACK TO LANGLEY, VIRGINIA.
THEY HAVE A BLOODLINE BACK TO THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY.
CIA HAS MORE CONNECTIVE TISSUE TO THE REST OF THE AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
THAN ANYONE ELSE. NOW, I'D ALSO SUGGEST TO YOU
THAT WE ARE AN AGENCY CONSTANTLY IN MOTION.
AS THE WORLD CHANGES THE AGENCY CHANGES.
INTELLIGENCE, BY DEF
IN FACT, ALL OF THEM BUT ONE HAVE BLOODLINES
BACK TO LANGLEY, VIRGINIA.
THEY HAVE A BLOODLINE BACK TO THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY.
CIA HAS MORE CONNECTIVE TISSUE TO THE REST OF THE AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
THAN ANYONE ELSE. NOW, I'D ALSO SUGGEST TO YOU
THAT WE ARE AN AGENCY CONSTANTLY IN MOTION.
AS THE WORLD CHANGES, THE AGENCY CHANGES.
INTELLIGENCE, BY DEFINITION,
IS A PROFESSION OF CONSTANT LEARNING AND ADAPTATION.
YOU ARE NEVER DONE. AT BEST YOU ARE AHEAD AT THE MOMENT.
AND IF YOU STOP, YOU WILL NO LONGER BE AHEAD.
THAT'S WHY, FOR EXAMPLE, WE'RE PUTTING MORE OF OUR
ANALYSTS OVERSEAS THAN EVER BEFORE
AND REWARDING OFFICERS MORE HANDSONELY
FOR LANGUAGE EXPERTISE.
AND IF YOU ARE STUDYING LANGUAGE HERE, LISTEN UP.
WE HAVE AN AUDITORIUM CALLED "THE BUBBLE".
WE'RE PUMPING UP THE LANGUAGE BONUS,
"HOW MUCH FOR ME?" I SAID, "I DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH FOR YOU, I KNOW HOW MUCH FOR ME."
THE PLUS UP FOR ME WAS $11.5 MILLION A YEAR MORE
IN LANGUAGE BONUSES FOR CIA FOLKS.
THAT'S THE RECRUTING ADVIRTISMENT
EMBEDDED IN THE SPEECH.
ALL THAT EFFORT AND EXPERIENCE,
PLUS HISTORY AND LAW,
ADD UP TO A DISTINCTIVE PLACE FOR CIA
IN OUR NATION'S INTELLIGENCE APPARATUS.
WE PLAY AN INDISPENSABLE ROLE IN INTEGRATING
THE VARIED, POWERFUL CAPABILITIES THAT YOU PAY FOR,
IN SHORT, STUDYING THE WORLD IS NOT AN ACADEMIC EXERCISE FOR US.
IT IS OUR DUTY TO GIVE POLICYMAKERS THE FULLEST POSSIBLE
PICTURE OF THE THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES FACING OUR NATION.
WE HAVE AN OBLIGATION TO BE RELEVENT, TO INFORM,
EDUCATE, AND GUIDE THEM AS THEY FORGE
OUR NATION'S APPROACH TO THIS COMPLEX WORLD
AS I SEE IT, CIA IS AMERICA'S SKIRMISH LINE,
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN BODY OF TROOPS,
PROVIDING RECONNAISSANCE, AND BEING
AMONG THE FIRST TO ENGAGE.
THAT'S OUR JOB.
OF COURSE, WE CANNOT PROMISE PERFECTION.
EVEN WHEN WE'RE AT THE TOP OF OUR GAME,
IT'S VERY RARE THAT WE CAN GIVE POLICYMAKERS
ANYTHING CLOSE TO CERTITUDE.
I WAS IN A MUCH SMALLER MEETING AND THEY SAID, "ON A SCALE OF ONE TO 10,
HOW GOOD THE CIA IS RIGHT NOW?"
MY ANSWER WAS, "ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10,
EIGHT, NINE AND 10 AREN'T EVEN ON OUR SCALE."
IF YOU'RE AT EIGHT NIN AND TEN,
NO ONE IS ASKING US THE QUESTION.
WE ONKY GET THE OTHER ONES. THE ONES THAT ARE
MORE AMBIGUOUS, THE ONES THAT ARE FURTHER DOWN ON THE CHART.
THE ISSUES WE COVER ARE AMONG THE TOUGHEST FACING OUR NATION.
THE WORK WE DO IS INHERENTLY AMBIGUOUS.
AND THE INFORMATION WE SEEK,
OFTEN DELIBERATELY HIDDEN.
I DON'T POINT THIS OUT BY WAY OF EXCUSE,
BUT RATHER, EXPLANATION.
CIA WON'T ALWAYS GET IT RIGHT,
BUT WE DO PLEDGE CONTINUAL LEARNING AND IMPROVEMENT.
YOU SHOULD EXPECT NOTHING LESS.
BOTH MY AGENCY AND MY COMMUNITY
HAVE MADE HUGE STRIDES OVER THE PAST SIX YEARS.
NOT ONLY HAVE WE STRENGTHENED OUR TRADECRAFT,
EXPERTISE, AND CAPABILITIES, BUT WE ARE ALSO SHARING
AND COMBINING THOSE THINGS WITHIN
THE COMMUNITY AS NEVER BEFORE.
THE IMPROVEMENTS AND THE ENDURING COMMITMENT
TO DO EVEN BETTER GIVE ME TREMENDOUS OPTIMISM AS WE
CONTEMPLATE THE CHALLENGES OF THE 21ST CENTURY,
THOSE ARE THE CHALLENGES THAT THE YOUNG FOLK IN THE AUDIENCE TODAY WILL INHERIT
IT IS WELL WITHIN OUR CAPACITY AS A
NATION TO MEET THOSE CHALLENGES, AND ULTIMATELY,
TO FORGE AN EFFECTIVE LEADERSHIP ROLE FOR
AMERICA IN THIS COMPLEX NEW CENTURY.
ONE THAT KEEPS AMERICA BOTH STRONG AND SECURE.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION, AND I'D BE HAPPY TO TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS.
(APPLAUSE)
WELL, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN. I THINK YOU CAN SEE
WHY HE'S THE DIRECTOR OF THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY.
NOW, WE HAVE MICROPHONES ON MY LEFT,
AND ONE YOUR RIGHT.
I'M SO GLAD THAT SO MANY PEOPLE
COULD COME TO THIS LECTURE TODAY.
BECAUSE YOU JUST HEARD A POWERFUL, CLEAR, ANALYTICAL
LECTURE ON NOT JUST THE AMERICAN WORLD WE LIVE IN,
BUT SO MANY INS AND OUTS OF THIS COMPLEX
WORLD WE LIVE IN, IN 2008.
YOU KNOW, I DON'T THINK THERE'S ANOTHER DIRECTOR
OF THE CIA IN THE LAST 50 YEARS THAT'S JUST GIVEN
A BETTER DESCRIPTION OF THE WORLD WE LIVE IN TODAY THAN
THE DIRECTOR OF THE CIA. LET'S GIVE HIM ANOTHER BIG HAND.
(APPLAUSE)
SO, WE'LL START WITH YOU, OVER HERE,
ON THE LEFT. PLEASE.
MY NAME'S ADAM HILLIAN, I'M A SENIOR IN POLITICAL SCIENCE HERE, AND I HAD A COUPLE QUESTIONS.
YOU BRIEFLY TOUCHED ON CHINA AND TAIWAN.
AND I JUST WANT TO ASK WHAT YOU THOUGHT WAS THE IMPLICATIONS
OF THE CONTINUED SALES OF WEAPONS TO TAIWAN,
AND IF THAT LEADS TO INSABILITY IN THE REGION,
AND WHAT YOU THINK THE FUTURE BETWEEN
US AND TAIWAN SHOULD BE?
AS YOUR QUESTION IMPLIES, AND I THINK YOU KNOW,
THIS IS A HIDIOUSLY COMPLEX PROBLEM.
WE'RE ALL IN AGREEMENT, THERE'S ONE CHINA.
WE ALL ACCEPT THAT MOST OF THE TIME.
RECENT ELECTIONS IN TAIWAN MADE THAT A LITTE
WABBLY, BUT IT ENDED UP IN THE RIGHT PLACE.
WE'VE ALSO MADE IT CLEAR WE WANT HEALTHY, POSITIVE
RELATIONS WITH BEJING, BUT THROUGHOUT THE HISTORY OF THIS RELATIONSHIP,
BEGINNING WITH THE OPENING OF THE DOORS THERE,
WE'VE ALSO MADE IT CLEAR THAT WE HAVE A CONTINUING RELATIONSHIP
WITH THE GOVERNMENT ON TAIWAN AND A CONTINUING
INTEREST IN THE DEFENSE OF TAIWAN.
AND OUR GOVERNMENT, VERY CAREFULLY, ATTEMPTS
TO BALANCE ALL THOSE VIEWS.
I DON'T WANT TO GET TO FAR INTO A POLICY LANE,
BUT THERE'S A SWEET SPOT THERE
IN WHICH THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TAIPAN AND BEJING
CREATES THE OPTIMUM CHANCES FOR SUCCESS
OVER THE LONG TERM BY REDUCING THE CHANCES
FOR UNPLANNED RANDOM VIOLENCE THAT COULD ERUPT
THE OVERALL POLICY IS TO KEEP IT STABLE AND LET
AND LET NATURAL FORCES OVER TIME TAKE THEIR COURSE TOWARDS A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION.
KEEPING IT STABLE INVOLVES ARRANGEMENTS
AND RELATIONSHIPS WITH BOTH PARTIES.
THANK YOU, SIR.
MY NAME IS IVAN ZAZEMZOOK(SP.) I'M A GRADUATE STUDENT HERE
EARNING A MASTER'S DEGREE IN HISTORY.
CAN YOU GIVE US A GREATER APPRECIATION FOR WHAT I
THINK MUST BE A VERY COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP.
YOU MENTIONED IN YOUR SPEECH THAT THE CIA IS A CABINET LEVEL POSITION,
AND THEREFORE HAS NO VESTED INTERESTS IN POLICY OUTCOMES,
AND YET YOU ARE A COMMISSIONED FOUR STAR OFFICER.
COULD YOU HELP US UNDERSTAND HOW AT ONE TABLE
YOU COULD BE COEQUAL TO A MAN WHO AT
ANOTHER TABLE WOULD HAVE BEEN YOUR BOSS.
HERE YOU ARE, A FOUR STAR OFFICER, SUBSERVIENT TO THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
IN ONE VENUE, YET IN ANOTHER YOU WOULD BE COEQUAL TO HIM.
IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THAT WOULD BE A CONFLICT OF INTEREST.
I AM, BY LAW, OUTSIDE THE MILITARY CHAIN OF COMMAND.
SO, I AM NOT UNDER THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE.
HAVING SPENT 39 YEARS IN UNIFORM, THERE ARE THINGS YOU REMEMBER,
I'D BOX THEM ALL IN TERMS OF BEING POLITE.
WHEN I GO IN TO A NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL MEETING AND
THE SECRETARY OF STATE IS HERE,
AND THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE IS HERE, I WILL SAY,
"GOOD MORNING, SECRETARY GATES."
OR GOOD MORNING, MR. CHAIRMAN, WHETHER IS GENERAL MYERS OR EDWARD MULLEN.
BUT I WILL TURN TO THE SECRETARY OF STATE AND SAY "HEY, CONDI!"
(LAUGHTER)
IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH BEING IN UNIFORM.
IT HAS EVERYTHING TO DO THAT LEUITENANT COLONAL HAYDEN
WAS WORKING ON THE STAFF WITH INTERN RICE
IN 1986.
(LAUGHTER)
HELLO, GENERAL. I'M MARK -
THIS IS THE MAYOR OF MANHATTAN OVER HERE.
AS THE CURRENT MAYOR, WE HAVE A RELATIONSHIP WITH
A SMALL TOWN IN THE CHEZCH REPUBLIC.
JUST OUTSIDE OF PRAGUE. AND I WAS WONDERING WHAT KIND OF RELATIONSHIP
THE CIA HAS WITH FORMER EASTERN SOVIET COUNTRIES.
AND ARE THEY PRETTY GENERALLY OPEN AND COOPERATIVE TO HELPING US AND SUCH? OR NOT?
LET ME JUST GIVE YOU A MACRO ANSWER:
AMONG THE BEST PARTNERS WE HAVE IN THE WORLD.
MY NAME'S CHRIS JONES, I'M A SOPHOMORE MICROBIOLOGY, CHEMISTRY PREMED.
I JUST HAD A QUICK QUESTION FOR YOU.
I THOUGHT THE THREE TRENDS YOU TALKED ABOUT WERE
EXTREMEMLY VALID AND WILL SHAPE A LARGE PORTION OF OUR FURTURE.
BUT I THINK YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED ONE.
(LAUGHTER)
HOW DO YOU THINK THE COMPETITION FOR RESOURCES, SUCH AS OIL,
WHICH RESEARCHERS BELIEVE WILL REACH PEAK WORLD PRODUCTION
IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS WITH A CONSTANTLY INCREASING
DEMAND AND WATER, WHICH MANY FORIEGN NATIONS
WILL LOSE ACCESS TO DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING.
HOW DO YOU THINK THAT WILL AFFECT -
I AGREE AND IF I HAD FOUR, THAT'S A REAL STRONG
CANDATITE FOR NUMBER FOUR.
BUT, I WOULDN'T HAVE PRIORITIZED IT.
THESE WERE THREE I THOUGHT WERE USEFULL TO SHARE BECAUSE
OF THE NATURE OF THE VENUE. AND ON YOUR TWO,
I'D BET ON WATER BEING THE MORE CRITICAL MORE EARLY THAN OTHER RESOURCES.
GOOD AFTERNOON, SIR. MY NAME IS (INAUDIBLE) AND I'M THE ARABIC
INTRUCTOR AT KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY AND FORT RILEY.
BEFORE MY QUESTION, I WOULD LIKE TO THANK YOU
FOR ENCOURAGING THE YOUNG MEN AND WOMEN TO
TAKE LANGUAGES. MY QUESTION, SIR, AS WE KNOW NOW,
THE NIEGHBORING COUNTRIES THEY ARE NOT GOING TO ACCEPT ANY MORE IRAQ
SO OUR SUCCESS IN IRAQ DOESN'T GO HAND IN HAND WITH THE
INTEREST OF THE NIEGHBORING COUNTRIES
I'M MEANING THE MAJORITY OF THE NIEGHBORING COUNTRIES WITHOUT TURKEY.
SO OBVIOUSLY OUR PRESSURE IS NOT WORKING.
SO WHAT'S NEXT WITH THE NIEGHBORING COUNTRIES. THANK YOU.
I THINK YOU'RE REFERING TO THE NIEGHBORING SUDI COUNTRIES, RIGHT?
AND IRAN, OKAY.
YET AGAIN, WITHOUT GETTING TOO FAR INTO A POLICY LANE,
JUST A COUPLE GENERALIZED COMMENTS I THINK I CAN MAKE.
LET ME TALK, FIRST OF ALL, WITH REGARD TO IRAN.
MEMEBERS OF OUR GOVERNMENT HAVE MADE PRETTY SPECIFIC STATEMENTS
WITH REGARD TO WHAT IRAN IS DOING IN IRAQ.
I WILL SHARE WITH YOU MY VIEW THAT IT IS THE POLICY OF THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT
TO FACILITATE THE KILLING OF AMERICANS IN IRAQ.
SO, JUST TO MAKE SURE THER'S CLARITY ON THAT.
NOW TALK ABOUT THE SUNI NIEGHBORHOOD, THE SUNI STATES.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A PERCEPTION THAT A SHAI DOMINATED GOVERNMENT
AND DEMOGRAPHIC SUGGEST THAT ANY DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED GOVERNMENT
IN IRAQ WOULD HAVE A LARGE SHIA COMPONENT.
THAT A SHIA GOVERNMENT IN IRAQ IS AN EXTENSION
IRANIAN SHISM.
WE DON'T BELIEVE THAT IS TRUE, AND I WOULD POINT
DIRECTLY TO THE PERFORMACE OF PRIME MINISTER MALIKI.
ABOUT A MONTH AGO, WHERE HE MOVED IRAQI ARMY FORCES. HE MOVED THEM ON HIS OWN. MOVED THEM TO BAZRA.
AND TOOK ON THUGS AND MALITIA,
ALL OF THEM SHIA, IN BOZRA ALL TO EXTEND THE CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT IN BAGHDAD.
I THINK IT IS THAT KIND OF PERFORMACE OVER TIME
THAT WILL CONVINCE THE NIEGHBORHOOD OF THE BONIFITES
OF THE CREDENTIALS OF THE GOVERNMENT IN BAGHDAD.
WE VIEWED IT AS A VERY, VERY POSITIVE STEP.
I DON'T LIKE TO BE CRITICAL HERE, BUT THE PRESS COVERAGE
KIND OF INDICATED THAT IT WAS A FAILURE,
THEY DIDN'T DO WHAT THEY WANTED TO DO.
HAVE YOU HEARD ABOUT BAZRA LATELY?
NO, YOU HAVE NOT, WHY? BECAUSE THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT'S IN CONTROL OF BAZRA
AND IS IN CONTROL OF THE PORT.
I OPPOSE IRANI INFLUENCE AND ALL OTHER COUNTRIES
INFLUENCE, THANK YOU.
CAN YOU HEAR ME? HELLO, DIRECTOR HAYDEN. I'M SEAN, A SOPHOMORE
IN AEROSPACE ENGINEERING.
I WAS WONDERING IF YOU BELIEVE THE UNITED STATES IS
SUBJECTED TO HOMEGROWN TERRORISM, AND IF YOU DO BELIEVE THIS,
IS THERE ANYTHING WE CAN LEARN FROM OUR LONG
TIME FRIENDS ACCROSS THE POND IN THE UNITED KINGDOM?
IT'S A GREAT QUESTION, SEAN.
AND I DON'T WANT TO BE PORTRAYED AS WHISTLING PAST THE GRAVEYARD HERE,
BUT THE CHARACTER OF OUR SOCIETY HAS MADE THAT THREAT
LOWER THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE BE.
AND THAT WAS WHAT I WAS TRYING TO CONVEY
EARLIER WITH OUR IMMIGRANT EXPERIENCE.
I'LL GET THIS WRONG, SO DON'T SEND ME A BUNCH OF EMAILS,
SAYING "YOU SCREWED IT UP", BUT THERE'S A STATISTIC OUT THERE.
I THINK IT'S ISLAMIC AMERICANS, THE AVERAGE WAGE
OF ISLAMIC AMERICANS IS ACTUALLY ABOVE THE NATIONAL AVERAGE
THAT'S AN INCREDIBLY TELLING STATISTIC.
AND IT PLAYS DIRECTLY TO WHAT YOU JUST DESCRIBED.
IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL HOMEGROWN THREATS.
NOW, THERE ARE A LOT OF HOMEGROWN THREATS I'VE JUST HONED IN ON THE ONE THAT SEEMS TO DOMINATE THE NEWS.
THAT STATISTIC IS NOT MIRRORED IN OTHER COUNTRIES.
TO BE OVERLY IRREVERANT ABOUT IT, THE PEOPLE WHO IMMIGRATED TO GREAT BRITIAN FROM PAKISTAN
ARE DIFFERENT THAN THE PEOPLE WHO CAME HERE.
WE GOT AN AWEFUL LOT OF HEART SURGENS. (LAUGHTER)
I WAS FLYING WITH MY PAKISTANI COUNTERPART
IN A SMALL AIRCRAFT, TWIN ENGINES, SO WE COULD SEE THE COUNTRYSIDE.
AND I TURNED TO HIM AND I SAID,
"GENERAL, WHAT DO YOU THINK WHEN YOU LOOK OUT HERE
AND SEE THIS COUNTRY?"
HE THOUGHT FOR A MOMENT, AND HE SAID,
"I FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE.
WHEN I VISIT THE UNITED STATES,
WHEN I TAKE A VACATION, WHEN I DRIVE AROUND,
PEOPLE ASSUME I'M AN AMERICAN."
THAT'S A BIG DEAL.
HI THERE, SIR. MY NAME IS KASSANDRA MORRIS,
I'M A STUDENT IN LEADERSHIP STUDIES.
AND AS A LEADER AMONG LEADERS,
I'M CURIOUS WHAT STRATEGIES YOU FIND MOST EFFECTIVE
IN DEALING WITH YOUR PEERS, THE HEADS OF OTHER AGENCIES,
AND FORIEGN GOVERNMENTS, AND DEALING WITH YOUR
ENORMOUS NUMBER OF FOLLOWERS.
IN BOTH CASES THE KEY IS HUMILITY.
WHEN YOU'RE SITTING ACROSS THE TABLE FROM ANOTHER COUNTERPART,
YOU KNOW IN YOUR HEART OF HEARTS YOU HAVE MORE LAWYERS
THAN HE HAS PEOPLE IN HIS ORGANIZATION. (LAUGHTER)
DON'T ACT LIKE YOU KNOW THAT. (LAUGHTER)
I'M SERIOUS. THEY KNOW WHO YOU ARE.
SO, YOU NEED TO GO OUT OF YOUR WAY TO HAVE THEM UNDERSTAND
THAT YOU'RE PROBABLY MORE INTERESTED IN HIS POINT
OF VIEW THAN HE IS IN YOURS.
IF YOU CAN'T CREATE THAT DIALOGUE,
THEN YOU'RE JUST DIGGING YOURSELF A WHOLE.
YOU KNOW WHAT, YOU NEED TO BRING THEM TO YOUR HOUSE FOR DINNER,
YOU NEED TO INTRODUCE THEM TO THE FAMILY,
AND YOU NEED TO INVITE HIS FAMILY WITH HIM THE NEXT TIME HE COMES,
AND YOU NEED TO TAKE A CRUISE ON THE PATOMIC.
SO, WHEN YOU HAVE TO ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY TALK TO THEM,
YOU CAN GET HIM OUT OF THE FAMILY WEDDING AND HE'LL TAKE THE PHONE CALL.
WHICH I HAVE DONE.
(LAUGHTER)
SO THAT'S ONE. THE OTHER ONE, WITH THE WORKFORCE,
IT'S AMAZING LOOKING AT THE FOLKS HERE IN UNIFORM
CIA CULTURE IS THE MOST MILITARY CULTURE OF ANY
CIVILLIAN ORGANIZATION WITH WHICH I'VE BEEN ASSOCIATED.
WE DON'T DO THE HIERARCHY THING AT ALL.
SERVICE, DUTY, PATRIOTISM, SACRIFICE,
IT'S ALL THERE. SO, THE THINGS THAT THE UNIFORMED FOLKS HERE LEANRED
AT THE PLATOON LEVEL, WORK JUST FINE AS HEAD OF A NATIONAL AGENCY.
GENERAL, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR COMING TODAY.
MY NAME IS JIM MOSSMAN, I'M A SENIOR IN POLITICAL SCIENCE HERE.
MY QUESTION IS: I WAS HOPING YOU COULD JUST KIND OF
ELABORATE ON THE FEASIBILITY OF A TERRORIST GROUP
GETTING A NUCLEAR WEAPON OR GASSING THE SUBWAY
IN A MAJOR CITY HERE IN THE UNITED STATES.
CLEARLY THEY HAVE THE INTENT. WE HAVE SAID PUBLICLY
ABOUT CONTINUOUS PLOTTING AGAINST OUR HOMELAND.
WE HAVE POINTED OUT, IF YOU GO TO OUR WEBSITE WHERE
WE'VE POSTED OLDER SPEECHES WE'VE KIND OF
DRILLED ON WHAT WE FEAR IS HAPPENING ALONG THE AFGHAN-PAKISTAN BORDER
SAFEHAVEN. IN A PHRASE I USED IN A
IN A NATIONAL OPPORTUNITY A MONTH OR SO AGO
WOULDN'T CAUSE YOU ANY CONCERN OR DRAW YOUR ATTENTION
IF THEY WERE IN THE PASSPORT LINE WOULDN'T TELL US.
THEY LOOK WESTERN AND THEY FIT IN.
THAT'S ONE: THE CONTINUED INTENT TO ATTACK.
TRAINING TO ATTACK USING WESTERN OPERATIVES.
AND THE THIRD STREAM WHICH WE CONTINUE TO SEE,
I CAN'T GO INTO GREAT DETAIL,
IS THIS CONSISTANT INTEREST IN WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
OF ONE TYPE OR ANOTHER.
YOU USED THE WORD NUCLEAR DETINATION, RIGHT?
YEAH, THAT WOULD BE, OF COURSE, THE ABSOLUTE NIGHTMARE SCENERIO.
ANOTHER SCENERIO, NOT A WHOLE LOT BETTER,
BUT MORE LIKELY IS NUCLEAR DISPERSAL.
WHERE IT'S NOT THE ACTUAL DETINATION,
IT'S NOT HEAT BLAST AND FRAGMENTATION
COMING FROM THE NUCLEAR BLAST, THE FISSION,
THE DESPERSAL OF RADIOACTIVE MATERIAL.
THAT IS MORE TECHNICALLY IN REACH OF THOSE
WHO WOULD DO US HARM. SO, GOT NOTHING ON THE HORIZON.
IF I DID, I COULDN'T TELL YOU ANYWAY. (LAUGHTER) BUT,
I'M SORRY, JUST ANOTHER 30 SECONDS. I REALIZE
I GET A BOOK IN THE MORNING ABOUT FOUR
TIMES THIS THICK AND I GET IN THE CAR AND I READ IT
IT TAKES ME ABOUT AN HOUR TO GET DONE WITH IT.
IT'S A PRESENT STATEMENT BRIEF, PLUS ALL OF OUROPORATION TABLES.
IT'S REALLY HARD TO BE AN OPTIMIST AFTER YOU'RE DONE READING THAT.
(LAUGHTER) BOB GATES, WHO WAS HERE BEFORE,
TALKED ABOUT THE CIA ANALYSTS, THE CIA ANALYST STOPS TO SMELL THE FLOWERS,
HE WANTS TO KNOW WHERE THE HURSE IS. (LAUGHTER)
I RECOGNIZE I HAVE A SOMBER VIEW OF THE WORLD BY PROFESSION.
BUT, I HAVE TO TELL YOU, WHEN I'M AT WORK,
IT FEELS LIKE SEPTEMBER 12TH, AND WHEN I GET IN THE CAR
AND DRIVE DOWN THE G.W. PARKWAY HOME, IT FEELS LIKE SEPTEMBER 10TH
IN TERMS OF THE NATIONS APPRECIATION THAT THE THREAT CONTINUES.
HELLO, SIR. MY NAME IS MARIA AND I HAVE A QUESTION. IT MIGHT SEEM
A LITTLE BIT ODD, BUT I STILL WOULD LIKE YOU TO ANSWER IT IF POSSIBLE.
AFTER 9/11, HAVE YOU CONSIDERED TO WORK WITH THE RUSSIAN
FEDERATION GOVERNMENT, ESPECIALLY INTELLIGENCE SERVICES
ON PERHAPS GETTING THEIR HELP ON HOW TO DEAL WITH TALIBAN?
DUE TO THE RUSSIANS EXPERIENCE PRIOR
A COUPLE DECADES AGO. AND ALSO, WOULD YOU CONSIDER DOING SO SINCE IT IS BEST TO HAVE RUSSIA AS A FRIEND THAN AN ENEMY
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE OF THE NATO CONFLICTS RIGHT NOW
BECAUSE OF THE NATO'S DESIRE TO USE ISTABUL AS A BORDER BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE WESTERN WORLD.
I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW IF YOU CONSIDER TO DO SO.
BECAUSE IT SEEMS TO ME THAT WOULD DEFINATELY MAKE RUSSIA QUITE HAPPY.
I UNDERSTAND THE QUESTION AND I NOTICE THE RESPONSE
TO THE PARTNER INLAYS ON THE QUESTION
BEFORE IT WAS A MORE MACRO ANSWER THAN ANYTHING SPECIFIC.
I'M AFRAID THAT LIMITS TO ARTFORM IN A PUBLIC LOCATION LIKE THIS.
SAY, TO ME...THERE ARE SOME COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD
WITH WHICH WE HAVE VERY CLOSE AND INTIMATE RELATIONS,
BUT NOT ALL. IN SOME STATES THE RELATIONSHIP IS MORE FORMAL AND APPROPRIATE
RATHER THAN RICH AND ENDURING.
LET ME JUST LEAVE IT AT THAT AND NOT TRY
TO CHARACTERIZE IT IN ANY MORE DETAIL.
WE DO, HOWEVER - LET ME JUST SAY WE'RE NOT CLOSED TO THAT,
AND THAT THERE ARE DIALOGUES
THAT DO TAKE PLACE, AND THAT THE RUSSIA SERVICES
DO HOST CONFERENCES TO WHICH WE ARE INVITED.
TO WHICH WE DO SEND ANALYSTS AND IN WHICH WE DO SHARE
VIEWS IN FORUMS LIKE THAT.
THAT'S A MORE ACADEMIC TYPE SETTING, CORRECT?
KIND OF A BRICK SHORT OF AN ANALYTICAL EXCHANGE,
BUT MAYBE A BRICK MORE THAN JUST AN ACADEMIC EXCHANGE.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME.
(APPLAUSE)
WELL, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, THANK YOU FOR
COMING TO THIS LANDON LECTURE TODAY.
IF YOU WANT TO WORK FOR THE CIA SOMEDAY,
YOU HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THEY HAD 138,000 APPLICATIONS LAST YEAR.
BUT, YOU NOTICED IN HIS LECTURE HALF WAY THROUGH
HE SAID THEY'RE LOOKING FOR PEOPLE
THAT ARE GOING TO HAVE A BACKGROUND IN HISTORY, GEOGRAPHY, RELIGION,
CULTURE, THE WHOLE BALL OF WAX.
WELL, YOU COULDN'T BE BETTER ADVISED TO GET A MASTERS IN
STRATEGIC STUDIES FROM KANSAS STATE BECAUSE WE DO ALL OF THAT AND MORE.
GENERAL, THAT WAS A BRILLIANT PRESENTATION FROM YOU.
WE THANK YOU. THIS WAS A RARE OPPORTUNITY
FOR PEOPLE HERE IN THE HEARTLAND TO HEAR DIRECTLY
FROM THE DIRECTOR OF THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY. THANK YOU FOR A BRILLIANT PRESENTATION,
AND THANK YOU FOR COMING.
THANK YOU.
(APPLAUSE)