BIOL 823: DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS
Meetings: Tuesday/Thursday 2:30-4:00 pm, Ackert 324A
Instructor: Brett K. Sandercock, Ackert 425, (532-0120, bsanderc@ksu.edu)

Course description: In this course, we will explore applications of demographic methods for the conservation and management of plant and animal populations. Quantitative methods for demographic analyses are currently used in two arenas of modern ecology. Evolutionary ecologists use these methods to examine the implications of variation in life-history traits, whereas conservation biologists are more interested in addressing problems faced by small populations of threatened or exploited species.  The first half of the course will introduce mark-recapture statistics, and the new tools that are available in Program MARK to estimate vital rates, particularly survivorship. The second half of the course will start with a refresher on conventional life-table analyses, and will then review the tools of matrix methods including life cycle diagrams, projection matrices, pre- and postbreeding models, and age- and stage-based approaches. Program MATLAB will be used to estimate asymptotic properties such as the rate of population change (8), and evaluate the elasticity and sensitivity of demographic parameters to perturbation. 
 

RESOURCES
Biol 823

Syllabus, Reader, Paper Format

Electronic Journals at K-State

Journal Call Numbers: callno.pdf

Program Mark

Download 
Program MARK

Download 
MARK Instruction Manual

Join
MARK Discussion Forum
Mark-recapture resources Burnham et al. (1987) 
AFS monograph  PDF 		Lebreton et al. (1992)  PDF
Datasets for five case studies		 Course notes for FW663
at Colorado State University
 

Proceedings of
Euring 2003

 

 
 

SYLLABUS

Date 

Tuesday

Thursday

Assignments
Week 1 Introduction to demography and mark-recapture methods PDF Catbird capture records caphist.mdb
Creating capture histories in Program Access PDF
Introduction to Program Mark PDF 		No data files
  Nichols, J.D. 1992. Capture-recapture models. Using marked animals to study population dynamics. Bioscience 42:94-102.  PDF
Sandercock, B.K. 2003. Estimation of survival rates for wader populations: a review of mark-recapture methods. Wader Study Group Bulletin 100:163-174.  PDF
Week 2 Model selection, group, time and age-structured models  PDF Snowy Plover input file:  snowy.inp
Fitting models for Snowy Plovers with PIMs PDF		  Semipalmated Sandpiper input file: semi.txt
Assignment 1: CJS models for Semipalmated Sandpipers PDF
  Johnson, J.B., and K.S. Omland. 2004. Model selection in ecology and evolution. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 19:101-108. PDF

Paton, P.W.C. 1994. Survival estimates for Snowy Plovers breeding at Great Salt Lake, Utah. Condor 96:1106-1109.  PDF

Stephens, P.A., S.W. Buskirk, G.D. Hayward, and C. Martínez del Rio. 2005. Information theory and hypothesis testing: a call for pluralism. Journal of Animal Ecology 42:4-12.  PDF
Week 3 Design matrices  PDF Fitting models for Snowy Plovers with design matrices PDF Assignment 2: Age, additive and covariate models for Semipalmated Sandpipers PDF
  Lebreton, J.-D., K.P. Burnham, J. Clobert, and D.R. Anderson. 1992. Modeling survival and testing biological hypotheses using marked animals: a unified approach with case studies. Ecological Monographs 62:67-118.  PDF
Week 4 Multistate, robust design and temporal asymmetry models  PDF Closed population models  
  Sandercock, B.K., and S.R. Beissinger. 2002. Estimating rates of population change for a neotropical parrot with ratio, mark-recapture and matrix methods. Journal of Applied Statistics 29:589-607.  PDF

Shefferson, R.P., J. Proper, S.R. Beissinger, and E.L. Simms. 2003. Life history trade-offs in a rare orchid: the costs of flowering, dormancy, and sprouting. Ecology 84:1199-1206.  PDF
Week 5 Testing for overdispersion  PDF  GOF tests for Snowy Plovers PDF Assignment 3: GOF tests for Semipalmated Sandpipers PDF
  Anderson, D.R., K.P. Burnham, and G.C. White. 1994. AIC model selection in overdispersed capture-recapture data. Ecology 75:1780-1793.  PDF
Week 6 No class No class  
Week 7 Model averaging and variance components 
Research proposals due		 Variance components in Mark  PDF
Mule deer Excel file: varcomp.xls
Variance components in Excel PDF		 Spotted Owl Excel file:  spotted.xls
Assignment 4:  Variance components for Spotted Owl population size  PDF
  Gould, W.R., and J.D. Nichols. 1998. Estimation of temporal variability of survival in animal populations. Ecology 79:2531-2538.  PDF

White, G.C., K.P. Burnham, and D.R. Anderson. 2001. Advanced features of Program Mark. Pages 368-377 in Wildlife, land, and people: priorities for the 21st century (R. Field, R.J. Warren, H. Okarma, and P.R. Sievert, Eds.). The Wildlife Society, Bethesda,MD.  PDF
Week 8 No class No class  
Week 9 No class Midterm exam  
Week 10 Life table basics  PDF Life table calculations in Excel  PDF Assignment 5:  Life tables for the West Indian manatee  PDF
  Beissinger, S.R., and M.I. Westphal. 1998. On the use of demographic models of population viability in endangered species management. Journal of Wildlife Management 62:821-841.  PDF
Week 11 Life-cycle diagrams and projection matrices  PDF Basics of population projection with Marbled Murrelets  PDF Assignment 6:  Basics of life cycle diagrams  PDF
  de Kroon, H., J. van Groenendael, and J. Ehrlén. 2000. Elasticities: a review of methods and model limitations. Ecology 81:607-618.  PDF

SFther, B.-E., and q. Bakke. 2000. Avian life history variation and contribution of demographic traits to the population growth rate. Ecology 81:642-653.  PDF
Week 12 Sensitivity, elasticity and other demographic parameters Sensitivity and elasticity values for Lesser Kestrels  PDF Assignment 7:  Projection matrices for killer whales  PDF
  Brault, S., and H. Caswell. 1993. Pod-specific demography of killer whales (Orcinus orca). Ecology 74:1444-1454.  PDF

Hiraldo, F., J.J. Negro, J.A. Donázar, and P. Gaona. 1996. A demographic model for a population of the endangered Lesser Kestrel in southern Spain. Journal of Applied Ecology 33:1085-1093.  PDF
Week 13 No class Lower-level elasticities and loop analyses  
  Wardle, G.M. 1998. A graph theory approach to demographic loop analysis. Ecology 79:2539-2549.  PDF
Week 14 Calculating sensitivity and elasticity in Matlab  PDF No class Assignment 8:  Lower-level elasticities for killer whales and loop analysis for plants  PDF
Week 15 Life-stage simulation analysis and Life-table response experiments Analytical formulae in Matlab  PDF
LTRE analyses in Matlab  PDF
killerapp.m		  
  Caswell, H. 1996. Analysis of life table response experiments. II. Alternative parameterizations for size- and stage-structured models. Ecological Modelling 88:73-82.  PDF

Wisdom, M.J., L.S. Mills, and D.F. Doak. 2000. Life-stage simulation analysis: estimating vital-rate effects on population growth for conservation. Ecology 81:628-641.  PDF
Week 16 Bootstrapping confidence intervals for lambda and other parameters PDF Oral presentations of research projects Assignment 9:  Confidence intervals for lambda  PDF
  Fieberg, J., and S.P. Ellner. 2001. Stochastic matrix models for conservation and management: a comparative review of methods. Ecology Letters 4:244-266.  PDF

Kaye, T.N., and D.A. Pyke. 2003. The effect of stochastic technique on estimates of population viability from transition matrix models. Ecology 84:1464-1476.  PDF
Week 17 Research paper due Dec 11 Final exam Dec 15  

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Last updated: Fall 2006